There are tentative early signs that South Africa’s short-term business conditions have improved and may continue to do so. This shift has not yet been picked up by formal economic data, such as GDP, but is evident in the bottoming out of our short-term leading indicator.

Longer-term conditions remain clearly destructive. A meaningful turnaround in this indicator will take time and political willpower. Businesses should react by positioning defensively around future expansion and investment decisions.