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Yo-yo of expectations regarding interest rate movements

Over the past week, expectations for interest-rate movements yo-yoed between optimism and pessimism.

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Real-time Reports

Business confidence – Q2 ’26

Business confidence sees marginal deterioration in Q3.

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Real-time Reports

Vehicle sales – Aug ’26

Another month of vehicle sales above 10%.

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PPI (FINAL MANUFACTURED GOODS)Jul '26: +5.7% y/y ▼ (+7.5% y/y)
SARB’S LEADING INDICATORJun '26: 116.6 pts ▼ (118.2 pts)
PRIVATE SECTOR CREDITJun ‘26: +7.8% y/y ▼ (+8.6% y/y)
RETAIL SALESMay '26: +2.3% y/y ▼ (+1.2% y/y)
BUSINESS CONFIDENCEQ3 2026: 38 points ▼ (39 points)
MINING PRODUCTIONJun '26: -4.0% y/y ▲(-5.4% y/y)
CPI (HEADLINE)Jul '26: +4.3% y/y ▼ (+5.0% y/y)
MANUFACTURING PRODUCTIONJun '26: -1.7% y/y ▲(-4.4% y/y)
TOTAL VEHICLE SALESAug '26: 57,898 ▲ (57,708)
ABSA PMIAug '26: 45.8 pts ▼ (46.8 pts)
TRADE BALANCEJul '26: R20.1bn ▲ (R17.2bn)
GOVERNMENT BUDGET BALANCEJul '26: -R161.6bn ▼ (R80.1bn)

ECONOMETRIX IMPACT STUDY: STEEL SECTOR

Explore the insights from Econometrix on the economic impact of tax policies and the closure of ArcelorMittal South Africa’s Newcastle plant on the South African steel sector and economy.

Access the full presentation and press release here.

ECMX - Econometrix

We Manage Economic Risk. Simple.

We are recognised as one of South Africa’s foremost independent economic consulting and research firms. ECMX is dedicated to providing clients with critical insights and data-driven solutions. Whether you require comprehensive analysis of macroeconomic trends or expert guidance to navigate intricate markets, we are here to assist you.

Our Approach

At Econometrix, we believe that understanding the broader economic picture begins with accurate data and expert analysis. By combining real-time data with seasoned insights, we deliver a deeper understanding of what’s happening in the economy, why it’s happening, and how it affects your business.

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ECMX - We Manage Economic Risk. Simple.

Real-time economic intelligence

We deliver precise research analysis, covering a wide range of topics from daily updates to comprehensive industry insights.

Bespoke economic consulting​

We work closely with your organisation to identify data-driven and theoretical solutions that address your operational challenges effectively.

Forecasting & scenario planning

Making critical decisions starts with reliable information. We deliver unique perspectives through webinars, thematic reports, and tailored strategic guidance.

Explore our services and see how our expertise can drive smarter decisions.

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Economic Risk. Simple.

Date Uploaded: September 7 2026 09:41

Yo-yo of expectations regarding interest rate movements

Over the past week, expectations for interest-rate movements yo-yoed between

Date Uploaded: September 3 2026 09:20

Business confidence – Q2 ’26

Business confidence sees marginal deterioration in Q3.

Date Uploaded: September 3 2026 09:20

Vehicle sales – Aug ’26

Another month of vehicle sales above 10%.

Econometrix (ecmx) is part of the ETM Group

Operating within a complex economic environment requires a deep understanding of national performance, sector trends, and target demographics.

Our objective is to empower your organisation with strategic insights to overcome challenges and capitalise on emerging opportunities.

ETM Analytics
ECM Econometrix
ETM Capital
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