The Absa Purchasing Managers’ Index reversed its recent progress, slipping back into contractionary territory (i.e., below 50) at 48.1 points in November, from 52.6 points in October.

The Econometrix measure of the PMI also fell back to 49.9 points in Nov from a four-year high of 55.1 points in Oct.

The overall PMI was let down by ‘business activity’ (49.0 points in Nov, from 55.6 points in Oct) and, more significantly, a crash in ‘new sales orders’ (45.9 points in Nov, from 54.8 points in Oct).

‘Suppliers performance’ also played a role: This sub-component fell below 50 in Oct and Nov for the first time in almost six years. The BER interprets fewer supplier delays as a negative input, but we believe it is a positive. Suppliers are finally stabilising after the battering of CV19 lockdowns, load-shedding and rapid inflation.