The SARB’s composite leading indicator increased to 114.0 points in October from a revised 112.8 points in September and  112.8 points in August, marking the highest reading since December 2022.

The SARB revised the leading indicator in the latest release. The key change was the inclusion of online job advertisements (via Pnet) to supplement the previous Sunday Times only job advertisements. This is a positive shift; the Sunday Times’ ability to represent employment shifts in modern South Africa was our key criticism.

On a year-to-year basis, growth in the indicator remains firm at +1.8% y/y in October, from +1.6% y/y in September. October marks the seventh straight month of year-on-year expansion in the indicator.

According to the SARB, eight of the ten available time series components reported better outcomes in October and outweighed a deterioration in the other two components.