In its latest World Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has improved marginally on its pessimistic view of the global economy issued in April. Forecasts for global economic growth have been revised upwards by around 0.2% for this year and next but were revised downwards by -0.5% in April. However, the institution suggests that downside risks to this forecast are material, related to the possibility of import tariffs by the US turning out to be higher than currently anticipated, coupled with the possibility of heightened geopolitical tensions and parlous fiscal situations for many leading economies.

Disappointingly, but understandably, there has been no upward revision for South Africa’s GDP growth from the 1.0% forecast for 2025 made in April. Besides pessimism regarding the ability of South Africans to deal with the structural weaknesses in their economy, it is expected that the country is unlikely to avoid a 30% tariff on its exports to the US, linked to the souring of international relations between the US and South Africa.