Donald Trump will be sworn in as the 47th  president of the United States today. It is, therefore, worth reiterating that there could be a significant difference between what Trump says and what he will ultimately do. Trump’s policy intentions signal his desired direction, but practical constraints may limit their implementation. Key challenges include balancing tariffs with inflation risks, managing immigration policies without harming the economy, stimulating growth in an already robust economy, cutting taxes despite a high budget deficit, and advocating for lower interest rates while fiscal policy keeps market rates elevated. Investors will watch closely to gauge how his priorities translate into action and their impact on markets.

For South Africa, Trump might lean toward cancelling AGOA and increasing pressure on Pretoria. However, such actions risk further alienating the US from Africa, which could have broader geopolitical repercussions. Every decision carries consequences, some of which may be unforeseen. As a result, it wouldn’t be surprising if he implemented policies more gradually than initially anticipated, potentially tempering the level of disruption. While his rhetoric often emphasises bold changes, the ultimate impact of his administration’s policies on South Africa – and Africa more broadly – might prove less severe than feared. Balancing strategic goals with unintended fallout will likely shape the trajectory of US-Africa relations.