The overvalued USD may be starting to correct lower, with the DXY set for its biggest weekly drop since November 2022, driven by a stronger EUR from Germany’s fiscal plans and Trump policies hastening a US downturn.

The ZAR, slightly undervalued, needs a strong budget next week to recover further.

South Africa’s Q4 2024 GDP grew 0.6% q/q, below the expected 0.8%, with 0.9% y/y growth missing the 3% target.

Trump’s tariffs spark trade war fears, risking equity sell-offs, though Fed easing could later aid the ZAR.

Germany’s spending plans lift the EUR and yields, while the VIX rises as US stocks falter.