The Absa PMI increased to 50.8 points in July from 48.5 points in June, marking the first reading above the 50-neutral mark since October 2024. The print outperformed consensus estimates of 48.0 points. Similarly,  Econometrix’s measure of the PMI improved to 51.7 points from 47.4 points over the same period.

The higher headline reading was driven by improved  ‘business activity’ (47.1 points from 41.9 points in June) and  ‘new sales orders’  (55.9 points from 46.1 points in June). Conversely, the ‘expected business conditions index’ declined again in July, to 56.4 points from 62.5 points in June.

An improved PMI supports the theme of a recent improvement in the SA economy. While these outcomes are welcome, the ongoing decline in expected business conditions indicates that manufacturers continue to face a challenging environment.  July’s PMI reading also predates the reintroduction of the 30% US tariff, which will likely weigh on future PMI readings.