Despite a mixed bag of developments on the tariff and geopolitical front, global financial sentiment remained relatively positive over the past week. Part of this was attributable to expectations of a loosening of US monetary policy under pressure from Trump. The hope of some resolution to the war in Ukraine following a proposed meeting for this Friday between Trump and Putin also generated optimism. Besides uncertainty whether such a meeting will yield any results, tensions over Gaza and on tariffs between the US and Brazil, India, Japan and Switzerland, still cast a shadow over the merits of such optimism.

Similarly, in South Africa, the proposed National Dialogue to be held on Friday runs the risk of being a damp squib following the withdrawal by many NGOs. Furthermore, a spat between National Treasury and the Reserve Bank over the latter’s pronouncement on pursuing the lowpoint of the inflation target rather than the midpoint has raised questions over the medium-term course of inflation and interest rates.