Key points:

• Trump’s policies push the US toward recession, pressuring the Fed to cut rates. The overvalued USD is correcting, with an 8.20% YTD DXY decline.

• ZAR’s undervaluation deepens; April sell-off tied to GNU budget dispute, not tariffs. Positive ANC-DA talks signal potential ZAR recovery.

• GNU budget impasse raises concerns about coalition stability, though collapse is unlikely. Market optimism for GNU’s success persists.

• VIX remains high amid US-China trade war, risking pressure on ZAR if risk aversion continues.