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MOTOR SALES AND PETROL PRICE FORECAST MODEL
Our econometric model provides quarterly and annual four-year forecasts of South African motor vehicle sales (Total Naamsa, including AMH & AAD), as well as the petrol and diesel price - view sample.

The List Price Index Model contains a base case forecast for the escalation rates of top selling passenger and LCV’s. More detailed escalation rates are provided for petrol and diesel LCV’s and cars, cars according to class and cars imported from Korea.  Users may override Econometrix’s base case driving variables to create their own price scenarios for the next five years.

The Motor Sales and Fuel Price Forecast Model, as well as the List Price Model, are offered as part of a subscription to the Automotive Package – click here to subscribe. 

Variables included in the motor sales model

All vehicles (seasonally adjusted) All vehicles (seasonally unadjusted)
Passenger Passenger
LCV's LCV's
MCV's    3.5 - 8.5t MCV's    3.5 - 8.5t
HCV's        8.5 - 12t HCV's        8.5 - 12t
HCV's        12 - 15t HCV's        12 - 15t
HCV's        15 - 16.5t HCV's        15 - 16.5t
Sub Total HCV's Sub Total HCV's
X-HCV's 16.5 - 22.5t X-HCV's 16.5 - 22.5t
X-HCV's Over 22t X-HCV's Over 22t
Sub Total X-HCV's Sub Total X-HCV's
Buses Buses
Sub Total Over 8.5t (HCV+XHCV+Buses) Sub Total Over 8.5t
Sub Total Over 3.5t (MCV+HCV+XHCV+Buses) Sub Total Over 3.5t
Grand Total CV's (LCV+MCV+HCV+XHCV+Buses) Grand Total CV's (LCV+MCV+HCV+XHCV+Buses)

Economic variables

 
Household Consumption Expenditure - Durables  
Government Consumption  
Fixed Investment  
Gross Domestic Expenditure  
GDP  
CPI Index  
PPI Index  
Prime Rate  
PPI Truck Index  
Major exchange rates  

Variables included in the fuel price model

Brent US Dollar per BBL
Rand per US Dollar exchange rand
Brent Rand/BBL
Quarterly Change Rand per bbl
Quarterly Change Cents per litre
93 Octane at Reef in Cents per litre
Fuel Tax Increase in Cents per litre
0.005 Diesel at Reef in Cents per litre
Diesel Tax Increase in Cents per litre

Variables included in the List Price Index model

Rand / Euro Exchange Rate
Yen / Rand Exchange Rate
Rand / Won
Consumer Price Index (actual)
CPI Inflation (y/y %)
Prime Rate

Price Indices
All Areas Vehicles Inflation, Passenger Vehicle segment Inflation and LCV segment Inflation
Europe Passenger Vehicle segment Inflation, LCV Inflation, Europe All Vehicles Inflation
Japan Passenger Vehicle segment Inflation, LCV Inflation and All Vehicles Inflation
South Korea Vehicle segment Inflation, LCV Inflation and All Vehicles Inflation


Early Repayment Change vs a year ago
All areas: All vehicles, Passenger vehicles, LCV'S
Europe: All vehicles, Passenger vehicles, LCV'S
Japan: Passenger vehicles, Cars, LCV'S

 

ConTact Us

Econometrix Park • 8 West Street
Houghton • Johannesburg • 2198
Tel • +27 11 483-1421 
Fax • +27 11 483-2498
sales@econometrix.co.za
info@econometrix.co.za