Our econometric model provides quarterly and annual four-year forecasts of household consumption expenditure (by category) and retail sales.
The Consumption and Retail Forecast Model (view sample) is offered as part of a subscription to the Consumer and Retail Package, or to the Quarterly Consumer Outlook – click here to subscribe.
Variables included in the model
Household consumption expenditure quarterly forecasts – nominal and real
Household consumption expenditure annual forecasts - nominal, real and price deflator
Durables - furniture & appliances, personal transport equipment, computers & related equipment, recreational & entertainment goods, other
Semi-durables – clothing & footwear, household textiles, furnishings & glassware, motorcar tyres, parts & accessories, recreational & entertainment goods, miscellaneous
Non-durables – food, beverages & tobacco, household fuel, power & water, household consumer goods, medical & pharmaceutical products, petroleum products, recreational & entertainment goods
Services – rent, household services including domestic servants, medical services, transport & communication services, recreational, entertainment & educational services, miscellaneous (including security services)
Quarterly retail sales forecasts
Real (seasonally and non-seasonally adjusted)
Nominal (seasonally and non-seasonally adjusted)
Real disposable income quarterly forecasts
Average wage and salary inflation quarterly forecasts
Employment quarterly forecasts
Unemployment rate quarterly forecasts