Econometrix has developed an econometric model that determines the cement price, demand and production capacity for cement, and allows for scenario adjustments.
About the model
The primary objective of the model is to provide a means of transforming the type of data often presented in macro-economic scenarios into the demand for cement and cementitious materials within South Africa.
Five year forecasts for gross fixed capital formation (for residential, non-residential and construction works) and three general price level indicators are used as input variables in the model.
The model uses these variables to create forecast values for the PPI component for ordinary and extended cement and cement retail, and also to forecast values for the sales of cement and cementitious materials.
Each of the driving assumptions and modelled outputs are presented with both Econometrix' base case assumptions and computed values.
The user can create scenarios by entering adjustment percentages for any of the assumptions and model values, with these overrides then being used by other variables in the model.
Model sheets, ready-to-print report sheets and graphic displays of all variables are provided within this application system in Excel.
Quarterly Cement Outlook report
In addition to the model output in Excel, the subscriber also receives a quarterly report as detailed below | View sample of the report