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Econometrix is South Africa’s leading independent economic consultancy. Our economist team is headed up by Dr Azar Jammine, who has over forty years of experience and is one of the most well-known economists in the country. Econometrix provides economic research that focuses on macro-economic trend analysis (from a South African and global perspective) and in-depth economic forecasts.  We also focus on the analysis of economic trends within the various sectors of the economy.  In addition, we offer interactive economic consultations with companies, presentations, as well as customised research reports. 

 

FLAGSHIP REPORTS EXPERIAN DEBT INDEX
  •   Quarterly Economic Outlook 
    Dr Azar Jammine shares his insights in our latest Q2 report analyses the most recent global and South African economic developments in detail, and gives four-year forecasts of a significant number of domestic and international economic variables.
    Click here to purchase.

     

     

  •   Sector Focus
    The Q2 report is now available with economic industry analysis and detailed forecasts of key sector variables.
    Click here to purchase.

     

  •   Quarterly Consumer Outlook 
    The Q2 report analyses the latest trends in economic variables that impact directly on the consumer and retail market, and also includes detailed forecasts of key economic variables, consumption expenditure and retail sales.
    Click here to purchase.

     

  •   Quarterly Automotive Outlook 
    The report focuses on the latest South African and global commercial vehicle and truck market developments.  Forecasts of key economic variables, vehicle sales (passenger cars, LCV, MCV, HCV, XHCV and buses), oil and fuel prices and exchange rates, as well as a List Price Index model (containing a forecast for the escalation rates of top selling passenger and LCV’s), are also included.
    Click here to purchase.

Experian, in partnership with Econometrix, releases South Africa’s Business Debt Index (BDI) – a vital and unprecedented benchmark to interpret the state of business’s debt paying abilities.  The index measures the relative ability for business to pay its outstanding creditors on time and tracks macro-economic indicators that can impact on the ability of companies to pay its creditors.  The BDI is an indication of how the players in the business community in South Africa are settling their credit arrangements with suppliers – in other words, it is a reflection of the overall health of businesses.
For the latest BDI release click here
For a more detailed report regarding debt stress in South Africa by sector, please contact our sales team.

 

LATEST REPORTS

  • EcoBulletin: Growth in monetary aggregates remains subdued in July, obviating any need to raise interest rates soon.

     

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  • Financial Markets: Bullish dollar outlook and local politics keep ZAR under pressure.

     

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  • Consumer Market Trends: CPI Inflation rates for income/LSM groups: June 2016

     

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  • Consumer Market Trends: Margins of most major retailers contracted in July.

     

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  • EcoBulletin: Decline in leading indicator in April does not augur well for economic growth prospects over the remainder of the year.

     

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  • Revs Newsletter: Transport inflation moderated in July

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  • Revs Newsletter: PPI inflation for transport equipment increases in July.

     

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  • Revs Newsletter: Growth in motor trade sales remained elevated in May, again due to statistical reasons

     

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  • Consumer Market Trends: Growth revised downwards, globally and in South Africa

     

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  • Revs Newsletter: Unremarkable vehicle sales performance in August, improvement on July but still weak.

     

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  • Consumer Market Trends: Strong performance from consumer goods in August.

     

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  • Consumer Market Trends: Growth in motor trade sales remained elevated in May, again due to statistical reasons

     

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  •  EcoBulletin: Unremarkable vehicle sales performance in August: Improvement on July but still quite weak.

     

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  • EcoBulletin: Unremarkable vehicle sales performance in August: Improvement on July but still quite weak.

     

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  • Revs Newsletter: June vehicle sales trend confirms downturn in the economy still very much in place.

     

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  • Consumer Market Trends: Consumer Market Trends - Monthly review - June 2016

     

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  • EcoBulletin: Steep decline in August PMI a reflection of anxiety caused by spat between treasury 

     

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  • EcoBulletin: Encouraging continuation of surplus on trade balance in July, endorses perception of improvement in terms of trade which ought to support the Rand.

     

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  • EcoBulletin: Sharp decline in government revenue growth in July, but growth in expenditure also falls, leaving borrowing requirement still relatively subdued..

     

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  • EcoBulletin: 2015/16 Crime statistics show worrying continued escalation in crimes that damage economic confidence and inspire emigration of skilled persons.

     

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  • EcoBulletin: July encouragingly sees best growth in electricity consumption and production since February.

     

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  • Paper & Printing Trends: Total media adspend growth moderated in January.
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  • Financial Markets: PMI releases to provide insight into global economic health

     

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  • Consumer Market Trends: PMI releases to provide insight into global economic health

     

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  • Financial Markets: ZAR direction still likely to come from abroad.

     

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  • Paper & Printing Trends: Paper & Printing Trends - Monthly Review - June 2016

     

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  • Financial Markets: Foreign purchases of SA bonds and equities as fresh multi-year highs

     

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  • EcoBulletin: Demand for tourist accommodation improves in May; Brexit may dampen growth in foreign tourism to South Africa somewhat

     

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  • Paper & Printing Trends: Liquidations: May 2016

     

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  • Paper & Printing Trends: Growth revised downwards, globally and in South Africa

     

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  • Ecobulletin: Inflation increases slightly as expected in June, but remains below earlier expectations: Unchanged rates decision virtually certain

     

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  • EcoBulletin: Civil cases for debt for private persons and businesses enterprises increase on a m-o-m basis in May in part due to increasing financial strain in the midst of weak economic activity

     

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  • EcoBulletin: Civil cases for debt for private persons and businesses enterprises increase on a m-o-m basis in May in part due to increasing financial strain in the midst of weak economic activity

     

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  • EcoBulletin: Unchanged rates as expected: Reserve Bank clearly does not trust recent Rand strength to be sustained

     

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  • Consumer Market Trends: Food and beverages industry income report: June 2016.

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  • EcoBulletin: Steep decline in building plans passed in May reflect lagged impact of the decline in business confidence

     

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  • Paper & Printing Trends: International pulp and paper price report.

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  • Ecobulletin: June boost to reserves by higher gold price neutralised by fall in the value of reserves held in Sterling due to Brexit Sterling devaluation

     

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  • Latest From Azar
    “Downward revision of the IMF global growth forecasts highlights insufficiently recognised cause of low South African economic growth: It is not all due to Zuma.”
    Given the depressed level of domestic business confidence related to the domestic economy's progressive underperformance in recent years, it is tempting to lay most of the blame on domestic factors. The most high profile domestic reason to account for low growth is linked to the impact of President Zuma's contribution to perceived "state capture" and the increase in corruption and incompetence associated with it.
    It is tempting to attribute the further downgrade of growth forecasts for the South African economy by the IMF just announced to be a case in point. However, such a domestically oriented view of the state of the South African economy overlooks the exceptionally important role which the progressive underperformance of the global economy has had to play in the domestic economy's underperformance. Whereas the IMF has reduced South Africa's economic growth forecast by a further -0.1% for 2016, to just 0.6%, it has reduced its forecast for global economic growth by -0.2%. Cumulatively, the forecast for global growth has been reduced by more than a half of the downward revision of growth for the South African economy over the past four years. Please login to access full article

     

  • Latest From Azar
    “Petrol price set to rise by 58 Cl next week due to increase in crude oil prices”
    The past month has seen oil prices increasing globally by around 8.4% and the Rand depreciating against the Dollar by -4.4%. The resultant increase in the Rand price of crude oil is therefore set to bring about a fairly steep 58 cl increase in the domestic price of petrol.Falling inventories of crude oil in the US and signs of a marked reduction in supplies in that country, together with the fact that the summer "driving" season is at hand in the Northern Hemisphere, as well as interruptions to supply from Nigeria which is experiencing severe political and industrial unrest, are exerting upward pressure on oil prices in the short term. The rising trend in the price of oil which has persisted since Brent crude prices bottomed out at $27 per barrel in January, remains intact. . .Please login to access full article

     

  • “With Rand having gained 10% on a trade-weighted value and petrol set to fall by R1 per litre, certainty that interest rates will be left unchanged”
    We believe there is absolutely no chance that the repo rate will be increased at the termination of the MPC meeting today. This is the first such occasion in several years where the outcome is a certainty. Even though the Reserve Bank has been talking hawkishly for the past year about the upside risks to inflation, the opposite scenario of inflation turning out to be considerably lower than previously expected is panning out. No more forcefully is this now coming through than that the Rand has gained over 10% on a trade-weighted basis since the last MPC meeting in May. In line with this, it looks as if petrol prices could be reduced by as much as R1 per litre at the beginning of August. .  Please login to access full article

     

  • Latest From Azar
    “Fascinating knife-edge for the economy: Much good could come out of current turmoil over Gordhan, with outside chance of disaster”
    One is greatly encouraged by the crescendo of criticism of perceived attempts by those hoping to benefit from state capture to undermine the position of Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan. Many see these attempts as a thinly veiled attempt to prepare the way for getting rid of forces working against those trying to exploit state-owned enterprises for their own benefit.The overwhelming opposition to state capture from so many quarters may heighten the country's resolve to stamp out corruption in a manner that could begin to save tens of millions of Rands in irregular, wasteful and unauthorised expenditure. Issues such as no fee increases at universities could suddenly become affordable. . .Please login to access full article

     

  • Latest From Azar
    “Futuregrowth's block of loans to SOEs seems like a boycott of SOEs whilst Zuma has oversight of them”
    The decision of South Africa's biggest bond investor Futuregrowth to end loans to state owned enterprises (SOEs) until such time as proper governance structures are put into place in these organisations could have far-reaching implications. It stands to be the first such move by a financial institution in protest against perceived state capture of SOEs by connected politicians and other individuals close to President Zuma. By drying up access to funding, the move stands to increase the borrowing requirement for any loans that SOEs might succeed in accessing henceforth. It is also likely to drive such SOEs to rely more heavily on government to fund them. In so doing, this stands to raise the public debt faster than National Treasury had planned, making it almost certain that the country will receive a downgrade on its debt by credit rating agencies unless there are drastic institutional changes in the next two months. . .  Please login to access full article

     

  • Latest From Azar
    Fading fears of interest rate hikes in the Us, partly due to declining concerns about Brexit, helping to bring risk on environment supportive of emerging markets again”
    The Rand has gained some 4% in value against the Dollar in the past week, once again largely due to international rather than domestic influences.
    Declining fears of US interest rate hikes has resulted in a "risk on" environment returning to emerging markets. This positive sentiment towards emerging markets has been further helped by declining fears of the UK leaving the EU following today's referendum on the issue. The combination of low interest rate prospects and no Brexit has ignited a rally on global equity markets which has assisted emerging market currencies, especially the Rand.. . .Please login to access full article

     

  • Latest From Azar
    “S&P has to decide whether to use carrot or stick: The former is preferable for the good of South Africa”
    Leading credit rating agency Standard and Poor's will announce tonight whether it will go ahead with its threat to downgrade South Africa's credit rating on its foreign denominated bonds. Effectively, this amounts to a decision on whether or not to use the carrot as opposed to the stick on the South African government. The carrot effectively would provide the government with a stay of execution on the grounds that National Treasury is really trying to maintain fiscal discipline and is attempting to improve the management of state-owned enterprises service to limit the potential risk of having to bail out such enterprises which might jeopardise its own solvency. . .Please login to access full article

     

  • Weak US employment data cause Rand to appreciate 2%: Classical manifestation of how it is international financial developments which dominate the SA currency”
    Today's developments relating to the Rand represent a classical example of how it is international financial developments which dominate movements in the Rand more than domestic factors.
    The whole country has been waiting on edge to hear news from Standard and Poor's (S&P) later today on its decision on whether or not to downgrade South Africa's foreign debt credit rating to junk status or not. However, before this announcement has been made, the Rand has appreciated within a matter of hours by 2% (to around R15.30 to the Dollar, from R15.60 earlier in the day), not on any news from S&P, but on the basis of news that US non-farm payrolls increased by just 38,000 in May, way short of even the most pessimistic forecasts. It was the weakest level of employment creation in the US since 2010. Furthermore, the April employment growth figure was revised downwards to 138,000 from 160,000 previously. For the past two years, average employment growth has been over 200,000 per month. . . Please login to access full article

     

  • “Rand depreciates again due to both international and domestic factors: Ambiguous interpretation possible of finance minister's statement”
    Once again, it is tempting to suggest that the most recent 10%-odd depreciation of the Rand against major currencies is a function of domestic political developments surrounding the stature of the National Treasury. However, international factors have also played an important role. Data out of the US have reflected higher inflation than had been expected and a number of real economic indicators have been stronger than anticipated. This has led to renewed expectations of some interest rate increases in the world's largest economy in the second half of the year. In turn, this has contributed towards a renewed flow of funds back into the safe haven of the Dollar and out of emerging markets such as the Rand.
    Domestically, fears surrounding interference in the operations National Treasury by those eager to "capture" the institution so as to divert state coffers for their own benefit have raised fears about the sustainability of fiscal consolidation. This has also contributed towards Rand weakness by casting doubt on the government's ability to prevent credit rating downgrades to junk status. .. Latest From Azar Please login to access full article

     

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Econometrix Park • 8 West Street
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