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Econometrix is South Africa’s leading independent economic consultancy. Our economist team is headed up by Dr Azar Jammine, who has over forty years of experience and is one of the most well-known economists in the country. Econometrix provides economic research that focuses on macro-economic trend analysis (from a South African and global perspective) and in-depth economic forecasts.  We also focus on the analysis of economic trends within the various sectors of the economy.  In addition, we offer interactive economic consultations with companies, presentations, as well as customised research reports. 

 

FLAGSHIP REPORTS EXPERIAN DEBT INDEX
  •   Quarterly Economic Outlook 
    Dr Azar Jammine shares his insights on the most recent global and South African economic developments including four-year forecasts of a significant number of domestic and international economic variables.
    Click here to purchase.

     

     

  •   Sector Focus
    The latest report is now available with economic industry analysis and detailed forecasts of key sector variables. (such as GDP, investment and employment) for the major sectors of the SA economy. The report includes a Growth Potential Benchmark, as well as a Credit Risk Barometer for each sector. The sectors covered are: mining, agriculture, construction, manufacturing, trade, financial services, electricity, transport & communication and services.
    Click here to purchase.

     

  •   Quarterly Consumer Outlook 
    This report analyses the latest trends in economic variables that impact directly on the consumer and retail market, and also includes detailed forecasts of key economic variables, consumption expenditure and retail sales.
    Click here to purchase.

     

  •   Quarterly Automotive Outlook 
    The report focuses on the latest South African and vehicle market developments. Forecasts of key economic variables, vehicle sales (passenger cars, LCV, MCV, HCV, XHCV and buses), oil and fuel prices and exchange rates, are also included.
    Click here to purchase.

     


Experian, in partnership with Econometrix, releases South Africa’s Business Debt Index (BDI) – a vital and unprecedented benchmark to interpret the state of business’s debt paying abilities.  The index measures the relative ability for business to pay its outstanding creditors on time and tracks macro-economic indicators that can impact on the ability of companies to pay its creditors.  The BDI is an indication of how the players in the business community in South Africa are settling their credit arrangements with suppliers – in other words, it is a reflection of the overall health of businesses.
For the latest BDI release click here
For a more detailed report regarding debt stress in South Africa by sector, please contact our sales team.

 

LATEST REPORTS

  • Paper & Printing Trends: Weekly Recap of Reports Sent 27 Feb- 3 March

     

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  • Revs Newsletter:Retail goods inflation: January 2017

     

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  • Consumer Market Trends:Vehicle sales continue to improve in February.

     

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  • Consumer Market Trends: Total media adspend growth reached 15-month high in December however; the result was largely due to statistical reasons.

     

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  • Financial Markets: Local political risk remains high, but ZAR continues to trade well.

     

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  • EcoBulletin: Big deterioration in trade balance in January a seasonal phenomenon.

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  • Consumer Market Trends: Household credit extension growth starts the New Year off slower.

     

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  • Paper & Printing Trends: ABC Circulation Report for Newspapers: Q4 2016.

     

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  • Revs Newsletter: Household credit extension growth slows further in February. 

     

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  • Consumer Market Trends:  ABC Circulation Report for Newspapers: Q4 2016.

     

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  • Paper & Printing Trends: Rand strengthens against the dollar, oil prices fall marginally.

     

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  • Revs Newsletter: Transport inflation increased in January.

     

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  • Paper & Printing Trends: Paper and Printing Margins- Feb 2017

     

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  • Revs Newsletter: Rand strengthens against the dollar, oil prices moderate

     

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  • Consumer Market Trends: Vehicle sales improve in March.

     

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  • Consumer Market Trends: Weekly Recap of Reports Sent 27-31 March. 

     

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  • Consumer Market Trends: Review of key developments

     

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  • Paper & Printing Trends: Credit Rating downgrade.

     

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  • Consumer Market Trends: Credit Rating Downgrade.

     

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  • Paper & Printing Trends: Household credit extension growth slows further in February.

     

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  • Consumer Market Trends: Household credit extension growth slows further in February.

     

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  • Paper & Printing Trends: Total media adspend growth moderated in January.
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  • EcoBulletin: March PMI stable, but does not yet reflect impact of recent cabinet reshuffle which is likely to drive down the April PMI sharply.

     

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  • EcoBulletin: Rand remains fairly resilient in the face of bad news politically but this will not necessarily be sustained.

     

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  • EcoBulletin:Vehicle sales figures for March and 1st Qtr 2017 aptly reflectnNascent economic recovery, but this is now likely to be scuppered by political developments.

     

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  • Revs Newsletter: Weekly Recap of Reports Sent 27-31 March.

     

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  • Paper & Printing Trends: Rand affected by political developments.

     

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  • Financial Markets: State of the nation address in focus this week.

     

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  • Revs Newsletter: Vehicle sales improve in March.

     

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  • Consumer Market Trends: Margins of most major retailers decreased in February.

     

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  • Consumer Market Trends: Rand affected by political developments.

     

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  • Paper & Printing Trends: Paper and Printing Inflation in February 2017

     

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  • Revs Newsletter: Credit Rating downgrade.

     

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  • Financial Markets: S&P downgrades SA to junk with negative outlook.

     

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  • EcoBulletin: Even though passenger vehicle sales fall off slightly, underlying turnaround in vehicle sales in February still evident.

     

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  • Consumer Market Trends: Consumer goods & services perform exceptionally in March.

     

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  • Consumer Market Trends: Total media adspend growth declined into negative territory in January.
     
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  • Revs Newsletter: PPI inflation for transport equipment decreased marginally in February.

     

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  • Latest From Azar
    “Negative impact on fixed investment potentially the biggest dampener on economic growth prospects, however other factors also at play” 
    The adverse impact on business confidence of the recent Cabinet reshuffle and the subsequent downgrading to junk status of South Africa's foreign currency debt by S&P Global Ratings, throws up a number of alternative possibilities in terms of the impact on the economy. It would appear that the biggest negative impact will stem from a decline in fixed investment as a result of the deterioration in business confidence. This impact is likely to outweigh that of higher interest costs on the ability of government to finance its expenditure. . . Please login to access full article

     

  • Latest From Azar
    “Implications of Wednesday's 2017 Budget likely to be eclipsed by uncertainty surrounding Treasury's ability to ward off State Capture”
    There can be no doubt that Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan faces a gargantuan task in trying to balance the books for the coming three fiscal years in the face of enormous populist pressures for "radical economic transformation", superficially aimed at uplifting social conditions for the poor.On the positive side, signs of a bottoming out in the declining trend of economic growth domestically mean that the budgeted growth in government revenue, which has continuously had to be revised downwards in recent years due to disappointing economic growth outcomes, need not be revised downwards yet again . As a result, it is conceivable that the path of reduction in budget deficits reflected in the Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) in October 2016 might also not need to be revised upwards. Consequently, the intention to constrain the rise in the public debt to GDP ratio, as a critical metric focused upon by credit rating agencies to reflect the government's commitment to fiscal consolidation, might well remain intact as set out in the MTBPS. ..Please login to access full article

     

  • Latest From Azar
    ‘Our Concern Is That The S&P Downgrade To Junk Status Might Prove To Be The First Of Many More Such Downgrades With Ominous "Negative" Outlook Retained’ 
    The decision by S&P Global Ratings to downgrade its credit ratings on South African debt by one notch, with long-term foreign currency sovereign credit rating moving into sub-investment grade for the first time since 2000, did not come as a surprise other than the immediacy of its timing. Rushing the downgrade before the anticipated normal June review was an unusual step and illustrates the dramatic manner in which the replacement of Pravin Gordhan with Malusi Gigaba as Finance Minister has altered the agency's view on the likelihood that fiscal consolidation will be adhered to. Unfortunately, Gigaba's initial pronouncement on his determination to embark upon "radical economic transformation" (RET), must have heightened fears of irresponsible fiscal spending to uplift the poor, leading to ominous increases in the public debt. . . . Please login to access full article

     

  • Latest From Azar
    “Perspective on ‘Fees Must Fall’”
    Amidst much rhetoric regarding the "Fees Must Fall" (FMF) campaign, it is important and relevant to clarify some misconceptions.Firstly, one needs to differentiate between freezing fees at current levels and abolishing university fees completely.. . Please login to access full article

     

  • Latest From Azar
    “Reweighting Of CPI Leaves Questions Regarding Sensitivity Of Financial Sector's Focus On Inflation To The Nearest Decimal Point”
    Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) published the new weights of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Friday, based in part on the Living Conditions Survey (LCS) of spending and income patterns by industry group, details of which were also published  . .  Please login to access full article

     

  • Latest From Azar
    “So Many Contradictory Implications Of Trump's Impending Presidency Are What Generates Huge Uncertainty”
    The impending US Presidency of Donald Trump is fraught with potential developments which carry huge contradictions. It is this which renders the resultant economic outlook globally and for South Africa in particular, so difficult to define. . Please login to access full article

     

  • Latest From Azar
    “Rand benefits from dovish US Fed stance, Moody's upbeat remarks about credit rating and AB Inbev inflows”
    Rand strength has resumed considerably in the past week for a number of reasons. Firstly, the publication of weak US economic data in the build-up to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and the unsurprisingly dovish comments made at the FOMC suggest US interest rates are going to rise by less than previously anticipated.  . . .Please login to access full article

     

  • Latest From Azar
    “Rand rallies slightly on rising hopes amongst some that Zuma might stand down” 
    After initially selling off in the wake of last night’s S&P ratings downgrade to junk status, the Rand has rallied slightly. This seems to have occurred on account of two developments each of which may have inspired hopes that President Jacob Zuma will be forced out of office sooner rather than later. In turn, such a development would diminish fears of state capture and associated fiscal profligacy. Firstly, Cosatu has called on the President to stand down, this after the SACP did so yesterday. . .Please login to access full article

     

  • Latest From Azar
    “Fuzile's departure from Treasury potentially destabilising: Has the economy reached the ideological chasm breakpoint?”
    The announcement of the impending departure as Directorate General of Treasury of Lungisa Fuzile is yet another disturbing development in the destabilisation of one of South Africa's foremost economics institutions. After 19 years in National Treasury, the institution will be losing not only valuable leadership, but also significant institutional memory which will be difficult to replace. It seems likely that the replacement for Fuzile will be drawn from persons closely aligned to President Zuma, escalating the suspicion that the new leaders in Treasury will be vulnerable to state capture. This might be seen as the forerunner of the abandonment of fiscal discipline, which had been the hallmark of his tenure as Director General. In turn, this latest development increases the likelihood of further ratings downgrades, with all the concomitant adverse effects on economic growth prospects. . .  Please login to access full article

     

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Econometrix Park • 8 West Street
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