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Econometrix is South Africa’s leading independent economic consultancy. Our economist team is headed up by Dr Azar Jammine, who has over forty years of experience and is one of the most well-known economists in the country. Econometrix provides economic research that focuses on macro-economic trend analysis (from a South African and global perspective) and in-depth economic forecasts.  We also focus on the analysis of economic trends within the various sectors of the economy.  In addition, we offer interactive economic consultations with companies, presentations, as well as customised research reports. 

 

FLAGSHIP REPORTS EXPERIAN DEBT INDEX
  •   Quarterly Economic Outlook 
    Dr Azar Jammine shares his insights in our latest Q2 report analyses the most recent global and South African economic developments in detail, and gives four-year forecasts of a significant number of domestic and international economic variables.
    Click here to purchase.

     

     

  •   Sector Focus
    The Q2 report is now available with economic industry analysis and detailed forecasts of key sector variables.
    Click here to purchase.

     

  •   Quarterly Consumer Outlook 
    The Q2 report analyses the latest trends in economic variables that impact directly on the consumer and retail market, and also includes detailed forecasts of key economic variables, consumption expenditure and retail sales.
    Click here to purchase.

     

  •   Quarterly Automotive Outlook 
    The report focuses on the latest South African and global commercial vehicle and truck market developments.  Forecasts of key economic variables, vehicle sales (passenger cars, LCV, MCV, HCV, XHCV and buses), oil and fuel prices and exchange rates, as well as a List Price Index model (containing a forecast for the escalation rates of top selling passenger and LCV’s), are also included.
    Click here to purchase.

Experian, in partnership with Econometrix, releases South Africa’s Business Debt Index (BDI) – a vital and unprecedented benchmark to interpret the state of business’s debt paying abilities.  The index measures the relative ability for business to pay its outstanding creditors on time and tracks macro-economic indicators that can impact on the ability of companies to pay its creditors.  The BDI is an indication of how the players in the business community in South Africa are settling their credit arrangements with suppliers – in other words, it is a reflection of the overall health of businesses.
For the latest BDI release click here
For a more detailed report regarding debt stress in South Africa by sector, please contact our sales team.

 

LATEST REPORTS

  • Paper & Printing Trends: Weekly Recap of Reports Sent 27 Feb- 3 March

     

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  • Revs Newsletter:Retail goods inflation: January 2017

     

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  • Consumer Market Trends:Vehicle sales continue to improve in February.

     

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  • Consumer Market Trends: Total media adspend growth reached 15-month high in December however; the result was largely due to statistical reasons.

     

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  • Financial Markets: Local political risk remains high, but ZAR continues to trade well.

     

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  • EcoBulletin: Big deterioration in trade balance in January a seasonal phenomenon.

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  • Consumer Market Trends: Household credit extension growth starts the New Year off slower.

     

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  • Paper & Printing Trends: ABC Circulation Report for Newspapers: Q4 2016.

     

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  • EcoBulletin: Some stabilisation in labour market in 4th Qtr and second half of 2016, but it remains an awful and alarming picture.

     

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  • Consumer Market Trends:  ABC Circulation Report for Newspapers: Q4 2016.

     

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  • Paper & Printing Trends: Rand strengthens against the dollar, oil prices fall marginally.

     

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  • Revs Newsletter: Transport inflation increased in January.

     

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  • Revs Newsletter: Weekly Recap of Reports Sent 27 Feb- 3 March

     

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  • Revs Newsletter: Rand strengthens against the dollar, oil prices moderate

     

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  • Retail goods inflation: January 2017.

     

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  • Revs Newsletter: Passenger vehicle sales growth positive for first time in 14 months.
    Weekly Recap of Reports Sent 6-10 Feb

     

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  • Consumer Market Trends: Review of key developments

     

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  • EcoBulletin: Rand strengthens against the dollar, oil prices fall marginally.

     

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  • Financial Markets: ZAR continues to trade well despite local and global risks.

     

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  • Paper & Printing Trends: Total media adspend growth reached 15-month high in December however; the result was largely due to statistical reasons.

     

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  • Ecobulletin:January sees huge decline in revenue receipts, possibly explaining minister of finance's criticism of SARS for revenue shortfall.

     

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  • Paper & Printing Trends: Total media adspend growth moderated in January.
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  • EcoBulletin: Rand gains ground in January on back of fears of disruptions to US and Global economies as a result of Trump’s immigration ban.

     

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  • EcoBulletin: December mining output improves slightly, but overall 4th Qtr slump could send 4th Qtr GDP growth into negative territory.

     

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  • EcoBulletin:Following surprising recovery in November, manufacturing growth falls back sharply in December, adding to possibility of negative 4th Qtr overall GDP growth.

     

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  • Revs Newsletter: PPI inflation for transport equipment increased sharply in December.
    Price of petrol expected to rise in February due to rise in oil prices.

     

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  • EcoBulletin: Transunion SA consumer credit index for 4th Qtr points to stability in consumer credit health, indicative of marginally positive growth in consumer spending.

     

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  • Financial Markets: State of the nation address in focus this week.

     

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  • Revs Newsletter: Vehicle sales continue to improve in February

     

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  • EcoBulletin: Fiscal situation at eight-month stage of 2016/17 encouragingly suggests budget deficit will be met: Challenge will be tax increases in 2017 Budget.

     

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  • Consumer Market Trends: Weekly Recap of Reports Sent 27 Feb- 3 March.

     

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  • EcoBulletin: Despite ongoing weak growth in tractor sales in February, market sentiment remains positive

     

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  • Revs Newsletter: PPI inflation for transport equipment decreased sharply in January.

     

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  • EcoBulletin: Private sector and money supply contract significantly in November: Is this suggestive of more economic weakness in the 4th Qtr?
    Growth in foreign tourism remains incredibly strong through October: It's not just a Visa story.
    Slight pickup in growth of electricity consumption and production in November.

     

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  • EcoBulletin: Even though passenger vehicle sales fall off slightly, underlying turnaround in vehicle sales in February still evident.

     

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  • EcoBulletin: Hopefully, decline in 4th Qtr GDP, Of -0.3% Q-o-Q annualised, contributing to 2016 overall GDP growth of 0.3%, will prove to be low point of downward trend of the past six years.

     

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  • EcoBulletin: Hopefully, decline in 4th Qtr GDP, Of -0.3% Q-o-Q annualised, contributing to 2016 overall GDP growth of 0.3%, will prove to be low point of downward trend of the past six years.
     
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  • Revs Newsletter: Household credit extension growth starts the New Year off slower.

     

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  • Latest From Azar
    “Perspective On Social Grants And The Challenge Facing South Africa In The Face Of High Inequality”
    Social Grants Have Increased From 3m To Over 17m Beneficiaries Since 1998: Social grants are set to account for 11.5% of government spending and 3.5% of GDP, at a cost of R151.58bn in the 2017/18 fiscal year. Without doubt, the rollout of social grants has increased substantially over the past two decades, from around 3m beneficiaries in 1998, to an expected 17.34m in the coming 2017/18 fiscal year. This increase has come about principally as a result of the decision in the late 1990s to expand the child support grant (CSG) to assist families who were unemployed. . . Just 0.4% Of The Population Fund Social Grants To Be Issued To One Third Of The Population:
    In 2017/18, there are budgeted to be 17.34m beneficiaries of social grants, equivalent to approximately 31% of the country's population. The roll-out of such grants is critical for survival of such persons. On the other hand, just 7.41m, or 13.2% of the population pays personal income tax which raises 38.2% of all government revenue or just over three times the amount allocated to social grants. . .  . Please login to access full article

     

  • Latest From Azar
    “Implications of Wednesday's 2017 Budget likely to be eclipsed by uncertainty surrounding Treasury's ability to ward off State Capture”
    There can be no doubt that Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan faces a gargantuan task in trying to balance the books for the coming three fiscal years in the face of enormous populist pressures for "radical economic transformation", superficially aimed at uplifting social conditions for the poor.On the positive side, signs of a bottoming out in the declining trend of economic growth domestically mean that the budgeted growth in government revenue, which has continuously had to be revised downwards in recent years due to disappointing economic growth outcomes, need not be revised downwards yet again . As a result, it is conceivable that the path of reduction in budget deficits reflected in the Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) in October 2016 might also not need to be revised upwards. Consequently, the intention to constrain the rise in the public debt to GDP ratio, as a critical metric focused upon by credit rating agencies to reflect the government's commitment to fiscal consolidation, might well remain intact as set out in the MTBPS. ..Please login to access full article

     

  • Latest From Azar
    The charge of fraud against Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan will be seen by most investors as an attempt to pave the way for him to be replaced as Minister of Finance by those eager to capture Treasury in order to benefit themselves from lucrative deals that might be forthcoming in the absence of close oversight of the country's finances by Treasury. . . .  Please login to access full article

     

  • Latest From Azar
    “Perspective on ‘Fees Must Fall’”
    Amidst much rhetoric regarding the "Fees Must Fall" (FMF) campaign, it is important and relevant to clarify some misconceptions.Firstly, one needs to differentiate between freezing fees at current levels and abolishing university fees completely.. . Please login to access full article

     

  • Latest From Azar
    “Reweighting Of CPI Leaves Questions Regarding Sensitivity Of Financial Sector's Focus On Inflation To The Nearest Decimal Point”
    Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) published the new weights of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Friday, based in part on the Living Conditions Survey (LCS) of spending and income patterns by industry group, details of which were also published  . .  Please login to access full article

     

  • Latest From Azar
    “So Many Contradictory Implications Of Trump's Impending Presidency Are What Generates Huge Uncertainty”
    The impending US Presidency of Donald Trump is fraught with potential developments which carry huge contradictions. It is this which renders the resultant economic outlook globally and for South Africa in particular, so difficult to define. . Please login to access full article

     

  • Latest From Azar
    “Rand benefits from dovish US Fed stance, Moody's upbeat remarks about credit rating and AB Inbev inflows”
    Rand strength has resumed considerably in the past week for a number of reasons. Firstly, the publication of weak US economic data in the build-up to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and the unsurprisingly dovish comments made at the FOMC suggest US interest rates are going to rise by less than previously anticipated.  . . .Please login to access full article

     

  • Latest From Azar
    “SONA highlights ideological challenges in trying to lift South Africa's sustainable economic growth rate”
    The State of the Nation Address (SONA) delivered by President Zuma in Parliament tonight highlighted the ideological dilemma South Africa faces in its economy.
    As expected, the President emphasised the need for "radical social and economic transformation" to broaden the ownership of the South African economy beyond domination by White persons. To this end he committed himself to many of the government's initiatives aimed at achieving such transformation. These include a radical land reform programme aimed at getting farmers to share their land with the workers; they include direct state involvement in mining and the introduction of legislation to ensure this; they also include government intervention to legislate, regulate, impose licensing requirements, budgeting procedures and procurement processes as well as BEE policies to drive transformation. .  . Please login to access full article

     

  • Latest From Azar
    Weighing Sharp Tax Hikes Up Against Development Of Many Positive Economic Factors Leaves One With Unchanged Economic Growth Predictions”
    There have been a number of developments, including the release of several positive economic indicators, suggesting that economic growth forecasts of leading institutions have been too pessimistic. Against this, however, is the fact that last week's Budget included the biggest tax increases seen in two decades. The question therefore arises as to whether the tax increases outweigh the positive influences in the economy in such a way as to render the official economic forecasts of leading institutions accurate? On the one hand, the rains in the northern parts of the country have resulted in huge increases in projected agricultural output of key staple foodstuffs. Furthermore, the strength of the Rand and prospects of lower electricity tariff increases, could result in substantial gains to disposable income from lower inflation than previously anticipated and, accompanying this, a reduced trajectory for domestic interest rates. Against this, the real increase in taxation emanating from the Budget amounts to approximately 1% of household consumption expenditure.  .. .  Please login to access full article

     

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Econometrix Park • 8 West Street
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Tel • +27 11 483-1421 
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